Beware of Expert' Forecasts

Early this week a colleague told me about Philip Tetlock's recent book on experts and their biases, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? I immediately thought of the old adage, "Those who think they Know, Don't Know…". Adding to the intrigue, Robert Jervis bills Tetlock's Expert Political Judgement book a "must read." Jervis' Systems Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life is one of my main compass bearings in professional life. Both factors suggest that I am once again seeking to confirm my own professional biases in adding this book to my library. So be it. Ironically, "confirming evidence bias" is itself covered in the book. I'm still on track to get it...more>>